India Elections 2024

India Elections 2024 - A Bird's Eye View

Here is a bird's eye view of the Indian elections which are currently underway -the polling phase has ended and everyone is now eagarly waiting for the results.

On March 16, the Election Commission of India (ECI) spilled the beans about when we'll be heading to the polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha General Elections - the polling phase would be a seven-phase marathon!

Kicking off on April 19, Indians would be hitting the polling booths in waves, with subsequent phases on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 25. and June 1, 2024 - that's when the last phase takes place. 

The Lok Sabha elections are split into seven phases to ensure that voting is carried out smoothly across the vast and diverse landscape of India. Each phase covers different regions of the country, allowing election officials to manage resources effectively and provide ample security for voters. During each phase, voters in specific constituencies cast their votes to choose their representatives in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's Parliament. 

The staggered approach also helps in preventing electoral malpractices and ensures that the electoral process is conducted in a fair and transparent manner. By dividing the elections into multiple phases, the Election Commission of India aims to facilitate maximum participation from voters and uphold the democratic principles of free and fair elections. 

 On June 4, 2024, tallying up all the votes will take place, and within a few hours after that the final winner will be declared - It's likely to be a rollercoaster ride.

Important States

Winning in several key states is crucial for any political party or alliance to secure victory in Indian elections due to their significant number of parliamentary seats and diverse demographics. Some of these crucial states include:

Uttar Pradesh: With the highest number of Lok Sabha seats (80), Uttar Pradesh is often considered the most important battleground state in Indian elections. Success here can significantly influence the overall outcome of the elections. 

Maharashtra: With 48 Lok Sabha seats, Maharashtra is another state with a large number of parliamentary constituencies. Winning here is essential for any party aspiring to form a government at the centre.  

Bihar: Bihar, with its 40 Lok Sabha seats, holds considerable importance in Indian politics. Success in Bihar can sway the electoral balance in favor of the winning party or alliance. 

West Bengal: West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats and has emerged as a significant battleground state in recent elections. 

Tamil Nadu: With 39 Lok Sabha seats, Tamil Nadu plays a crucial role in Indian elections, especially considering its regional political landscape and influential regional parties. 

Karnataka: Karnataka, with 28 Lok Sabha seats, is an important southern state where winning a significant number of seats can impact the overall electoral outcome.

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan: These states, with 29 and 25 Lok Sabha seats respectively, are crucial battlegrounds in central India. Success here can tilt the electoral balance in favor of the winning party or alliance. Winning a substantial number of seats in these states is often necessary for any political party or coalition to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha and form the government at the center.

FPTP Electoral System

In Indian elections, the winner is decided through a first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. 

Here's how it works: 

Constituency-based Voting: India is divided into numerous geographical areas called constituencies, and voters in each constituency cast their votes to elect one representative to the Lok Sabha. 

Counting of Votes: After polling ends, votes are counted in each constituency. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes in that constituency is declared the winner. 

Majority of Seats: To form the government at the center or in a state, a political party or coalition needs to secure a majority of seats in the respective legislative body. In the Lok Sabha, a party or coalition needs to win at least 272 out of 543 seats to secure a simple majority. 

Formation of Government: Once the election results are announced and the winners are declared in all constituencies, the leader of the party or coalition with the majority of seats is invited to form the government. The leader becomes the Prime Minister at the national level or Chief Minister at the state level. 

The President of India plays a ceremonial role in the formation of the government. After the election results are declared, the President appoints the Prime Minister based on the advice of the majority party or coalition leader. Overall, the winner in Indian elections is determined by the party or coalition that secures the highest number of seats and is able to form the government either at the center (in the case of national elections) or in the respective states (in the case of state elections). 

The final election results for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are expected to be declared on June 4, 2024.

The Contenders

The contenders in Indian election include several major political parties. Here is the list of the political parties and personalities to keep an eye on, as the result roll in on June 4
  1. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - Leader: Narendra Modi
  2. Indian National Congress (INC) - Leader: Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi
  3. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) - Leader: Arvind Kejriwal
  4. All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) - Leader: Mamata Banerjee
  5. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - Leader: M.K. Stalin
  6. Shiv Sena - Leader: Uddhav Thackeray
  7. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - Leader: Mayawati
  8. Samajwadi Party (SP) - Leader: Akhilesh Yadav

In the 2019 Indian General Election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a total of 303 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha,. This victory allowed the BJP to secure a majority on its own and form the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi (for a second consecutive term)

Modi has a significant base of supporters who appreciate his leadership style, economic initiatives, and focus on national security. However, there are also critics who raise concerns about issues such as economic inequality, social justice, and freedom of expression. The economy has not been able to general sufficient number of jobs for India's youth and this has been a matter of great concern.

All said and done, I expect Mr Modi to get a majority - he is quite likely to capture 305 to 325 seats -and with the BJP striking strategic alliances with other parties this number could go higher.

If Narendra Modi is elected as Prime Minister for the third consecutive term, we can expect many bold policy initiatives from him within the first 125 days.

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